Query on highlands during the Second Indochina War, 1959-75
From mchale@gwu.edu Mon Apr 19 17:23:53 2004
Date: Mon, 19 Apr 2004 15:35:24 -0400
From: mchale <mchale@gwu.edu>
Reply-To: vsg@u.washington.edu
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Subject: Query on highlands during the Second Indochina War, 1959-75
Dear list,
Does anyone have a somewhat rigorous estimate for a) number of relocations of settlements during the war 2) death toll during the war, all for the central highlands? Mark McLeod, in an article, quotes Arnold Isaacs to the effect that two thirds of all settlements relocated 61-71. That I am willing to believe. But the death toll statistic that McLeod quotes, from Gerald Hickey -- that a third of all highlanders (i.e. about 333,000 of them) died -- seems high to me.
I say this not to minimize the suffering, but because I have become highly sceptical of most estimates of Vietnam war dead. The most rigorous demographic analysis of war dead (by Charles Hirschmann and Vu Manh Loi, I seem to remember) suggests that about one million inhabitants of VIetnam died during the Second Indochina War (which is way below what some estimates suggest, but which is still an astonishing number).
Any insight into these issues would be welcome.
Shawn McHale
Associate Professor of History and International Affairs
Associate Director, Sigur Center for Asian Studies
Elliott School of International Affairs
The George Washington University
e-mail address: mchale@gwu.edu
From OJHM.Salemink@fsw.vu.nl Mon Apr 19 17:24:06 2004
Date: Mon, 19 Apr 2004 22:47:24 +0200
From: Oscar Salemink <OJHM.Salemink@fsw.vu.nl>
Reply-To: vsg@u.washington.edu
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Subject: RE: Query on highlands during the Second Indochina War, 1959-75
Dear Shawn,
It will be hard to get reliable figures for any period before 1979 for
a variety of reasons.
1) There is a distinction between "highlanders" (as an ethnic
category which can be found in the upland reaches of coastal provinces
as well) and the population of the "Central Highlands" as
an administrative region (which may include Kinh migrants and their
descendants).
2) If one takes the Central Highlands (Tay Nguyen, Cao Nguyen, Mien
Thuong, PMSI) as an administrative "unit" then one must be
aware that its delineations -- both internal and external -- have been
shifting ever since the French started to set up colonial administrative
centers. Parts of the current provinces of Kontum, Gialai, Dak Lak and
Dan Nong were once ruled from or via Lao and Cambodian territory, and
in the late 19th Century it was still contested territory between Siam
and French "Annam". With Vietnam's reunification the administrative
boundaries were re-drawn, and after 1975 Gialai-Kontum and Dak Lak-Dak
Nong split again.
3) For most of the 19th Century large parts of the Central Highlands
were either "white spots" on the colonial map or rebel "free
zones" (zones insoumis) during war times. This lasted until the
Fulro rebellion was put down in the 1980s.
4) Population estimates have been varying along with the economic, political
and cultural interests. If the land is important (e.g. for plantations)
then the existence of local "indigenous" residents is played
down; if the population is important (e.g. for claiming an autonomous
region against nationalist Vietnamese groups) then population figures
go up. The most recent episode is the Montagnard Foundation www.montagnard-foundation.org
which tries to back up its claims of genocide (e.g. forced steriliziation)
by stating that only half a million "Montagnards" survive
(down from an alleged 3 million during French colonial times). There
is no basis for either figure. The UNHCR Writenet paper "Vietnam:
Indigenous minority groups in the Central Highlands" of January
2002 computed the ethnic minority population in the Central Highlands
and Annam Cordillera on the basis of the censuses to have grown from
925,000 in 1979 to 1,625,000 in 1999 - a population growth rate which
is faster than the average -- even even faster than the growth rate
of the northern minorities in Vietnam. In other words: population figures
are politics, and so are deathtoll estimates. Or migration figures --
but that is another story.
I would say that if anyone is knowledgeable about these things it is
Gerald Hickey who -- unlike McLeod -- was right there most of the time.
We should not forget that the Central Highlands was the war's most important
battle arena (think 1972 or 1975 if the Special Forces period before
1966 is not spectacular enough), that there was much more forced resettlement,
and that its inhabitants had less survival options (like moving to Saigon).
Good luck with counting!
Oscar Salemink
From ProschanF@folklife.si.edu Mon Apr 19 17:24:12 2004
Date: Mon, 19 Apr 2004 17:37:43 -0400
From: Frank Proschan <ProschanF@folklife.si.edu>
Reply-To: vsg@u.washington.edu
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Subject: RE: Query on highlands during the Second Indochina War, 1959-75
Re Oscar's point 4, since colonial and precolonial censuses were typically tied into taxation, there were also inherent advantages to under-reporting population figures. Damrong Tayanin, a Kmhmu man from Northern Laos, vividly recounts how villagers were accustomed to hiding themselves from census-takers/tax collectors, since the head taxes were more than villagers living at a subsistence level could sustain. There was presumably less opportunity for such voluntary opting out among lowlanders, where village records and cadastral registers offered a reality check to catch tax avoiders.
I don't concur, though, in Oscar's seeming endorsement of Hickey's statistics. I think the one-in-three death rate has to be taken as "atrocity propaganda," differing in scale but not in quality from the numbers given by the Montagnard Foundation--both are driven more by political sentiments and affinities than by empirical data. Such a rate seems credible for one or another local area or village, but not as an overall figure--and Hickey's access to information was limited both in time and in space. All this, of course, also endorsing Shawn's are "not to minimize the suffering."
Best,
Frank Proschan
Save Our Sounds
From dnfox@u.washington.edu Mon Apr 19 17:24:16 2004
Date: Mon, 19 Apr 2004 15:01:57 -0700 (PDT)
From: dnfox@u.washington.edu
Reply-To: vsg@u.washington.edu
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Subject: RE: Query on highlands during the Second Indochina War, 1959-75
Does anyone know whether infant mortality (I think here of claims related to Agent Orange and other chemicals) is included in Hickey's figure? One more complication in trying to count.
Diane
From OJHM.Salemink@fsw.vu.nl Mon Apr 19 17:24:22 2004
Date: Tue, 20 Apr 2004 00:25:07 +0200
From: Oscar Salemink <OJHM.Salemink@fsw.vu.nl>
Reply-To: vsg@u.washington.edu
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Subject: RE: Query on highlands during the Second Indochina War, 1959-75
I have never seen wartime figures on infant mortality. The UNHCR report
says that current infant and child mortality in the Central Highlands
is the highest in Vietnam.
Hickey's figure of 200,000 highlanders who died from war-related causes
between 1965 and 1972 is attributed to then Minister of Ethnic Minorities
Development, Nay Luett. In 1975 this ministry gives an estimate of 220,000.
In the same appendix (in both Shattered World and Free in the Forest)
Hickey gives population estimates by several agencies between 1967 and
1970 ranging from 610,314 (which looks very exact...) to 877,000. Those
estimates include groups like the Katu, Bru and Hre who live in the
Truong Son range outside the administrative Central Highlands. In other
words, these sources claim that some 25% of the highlander population
died during the war. I have no way of knowing to what extent this is
exaggerated, but it is always good to use such figures with many grains
of salt. As to suffering, I don't think that can be measured numerically.
Oscar Salemink
From dnfox@u.washington.edu Thu May 27 12:32:46 2004
Date: Mon, 19 Apr 2004 18:03:28 -0700 (PDT)
From: dnfox@u.washington.edu
Reply-To: vsg@u.washington.edu
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Subject: RE: Query on highlands during the Second Indochina War, 1959-75
Thanks Oscar for this clarification.
I was thinking rather that if there were indeed as many effects of chemicals (among the young as well as old, and adults) as Hickey and others suggest, that might help account for a figure that at first looks too large. This is not meant to deny the effects of politics, just to add another layer of complexity.
And while I couldn't agree with you more about suffering, I think trying to get some notion of scale, and of the range of problems in getting that notion, is also important for helping students and readers understand what we are talking about.
thanks again,
Diane